What will happen if the US dollar hegemony collapses and the United States becomes "second in the world"?

1 thought on “What will happen if the US dollar hegemony collapses and the United States becomes "second in the world"?”

  1. As we all know, today the United States can call the wind and rain in the world, nothing more than grasped the three major hegemony -the US dollar hegemony, science and technology hegemony, and military hegemony. Many of them think that the US dollar hegemony is the most important because the development of economy, military and science The US dollar hegemony is the "tool" of money to make money. It not only allows the United States to "wool" from the world and pass the economic crisis, but also use the US dollar hegemony to sanction various financial sanctions on other countries. Iran, Russia, and North Korea can be described as harmful.
    . Therefore, there is a point of view that once the US dollar hegemony collapses, it is like a tiger without a teeth, and the United States will gradually become "second in the world". This is not impossible, let's talk about this topic next.
    Since the outbreak of the new crown, in order to save the fragile economy, the United States has "opened the gate and put water". In the past year, the total of the United States has exceeded $ 5 trillion. You know, the third largest economy in the world, Japan's 1 year of GDP, is only $ 5 trillion.
    The consequences of large -scale water release, the United States has benefited much. Its economy fell by 3.5%in 2020, lower than the global decline, but this has suffered a lot of countries such as Brazil, Argentina, and Turkey. After being affected by the US dollar, in the past year, the currency of Brazil and Argentina depreciated more than 20%, and Turkish lira also staged a 17%plummeted scene on March 12.
    The central banks in Turkey, Brazil and other countries have announced their interest rate hikes, and market rate hike expectations for markets to South Korea, India, Malaysia and other countries have also risen. However, today the United States has fallen into a vicious circle of "debt". Recently, the country has continued to launch a $ 2.3 trillion infrastructure plan.
    In this context, countries have begun to "anti -US dollar" -the current countries have "de -US dollar" through selling US debt, non -US dollar oil transactions, and signing currency swaps. Iran and Russia, which were sanctioned by the United States, are the "pioneers" to the US dollar.
    After signing a 25 -year -old cooperation agreement with a total value of 400 billion US dollars in China and Iran, foreign media pointed out that Iran will use RMB or digital RMB settlement in the China -Iranian oil trade; The Russian version of SWIFT -that is, the financial information transmission system, and plans to connect the system with the settlement system of the euro area, Iran, China and other countries.
    The out of the US dollar, has begun to shake the foundation of the US dollar hegemony -in October last year, the amount of cross -border payment of the euro reached 37.82%, slightly more than 37.64%of the US dollar. The US dollar; as of the fourth quarter of last year, the proportion of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves also declined from 60.5%in the previous quarter to about 59%.
    At the same time, as China, as the world's second largest economy, GDP has surpassed 70%of the United States. Many institutions predict that the China -US GDP reversal has occurred in the last 10 years. In addition, China is also promoting RMB International International This will give the US dollar hegemony "a blow".
    It is not difficult to imagine. As long as the US dollar is still continuing. At a critical point, the US dollar hegemony may really collapse, so what will happen at that time?
    First of all, it is dragging the economy. Because of the loss of US dollar hegemony, the United States could not put "wool" and passed on the economic crisis as in the past. For example, in the IMF's latest "Global Economic Outlook Report", it is predicted that the US economy will increase by 6.4%in 2021. Behind the strong growth, it is largely due to a series of economic stimulus plans since the outbreak of the epidemic.
    In fact, in the economic crisis of the century in 2008, the United States could take the lead in getting out of the economic crisis in developed countries, and it was also related to the four -wheeled quantitative easing policy implemented at the time. The set of banknotes to put water. It can be said that the US dollar hegemony has contributed to the development of the US economy. If this hegemony pillar is gone, the US GDP may be shrinking.
    Secondly, the United States will go further and further on the decline. Because the loss of US dollar hegemony is not only as simple as affecting the US economy, it may also move the whole body, leading to disintegration of the hegemony system. You know, most of the US sanctions on other countries today rely on the US dollar hegemony. rn 比如2014年克里米亚危机爆发后,美国便对俄罗斯的银行、能源、防务等企业以及相关人员进行冻结资产、禁止交易等;而为了让伊朗“不能出口一滴石油”,2018 In the year, the United States kicked it out of the Swift system and cut off the Iranian central bank's settlement service. These sanctions, without exception, are in the role of US dollar hegemony. Once this "weapon" is lost, the power of US sanctions is greatly reduced.
    Finally, a new monetary system may be formed worldwide. This is not difficult to imagine that the dollar's dollar in the international currency system is declining, and the power vacuum will be re -assigned. Many people believe that the international currency system will show the "US dollar, euro, RMB" three -legged pattern in the future.
    Why are there a place for dollars in the dollar? Because "going to the US dollar" will not happen overnight, but a long -term process. After all, the US dollar is still "anchor of global currency" at present, and at this stage, it is still inconceivable. At the same time, based on the strong comprehensive strength of the United States It is the main international currency, just like the original pound!
    With the rise of China, the internationalization of the renminbi has continued to make progress. When the US dollar hegemony falls, it is not surprising that one of the RMB in the international currency pattern of Sanying is one of them.
    text | Liang Jinyuan Question | Ling Mingtu | Lu Wenxiang Council | Liu Sulin

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